In the meantime, the recycling markets have largely been trading normally, albeit with some additional buyer caution. This, however, has started to shift.

Sources in the recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market – the most widely recycled plastic across Europe – are already seeing a change in consumer behaviour, particularly around buying habits, and more importantly, recycling habits.

“People are buying [bottled] water and they don't bring it back, they store it,” a German recycler said. Demand for virgin PET increased significantly in March as Europeans began to panic buy food and other necessities.

Sources in Germany, which has one of the most established deposit return schemes (DRS) in Europe – where consumers return their used PET bottles via reverse vending machines in locations like supermarkets – are waiting to assess the impact of social distancing and self-isolation on the recycling market.

Many will be looking at how used PET bottles are returned to the recycling stream during the outbreak as it comes at a time when post-consumer bottle availability is already tight due to the previously mentioned drop in bottled-drinks consumption.

This is also likely to have an effect on seasonal trends associated with the consumption of bottled drinks. If social distancing is still in effect during the summer, people may not go out as much, resulting in less R-PET availability. Some have said the coronavirus may cause more people to turn to tap water or use glass bottles over plastic.

“We plan that we will have less material getting into our plants in the next few weeks,” a major French waste collector and reprocessor said.

The impact on demand for recycled polyolefins (R-PO) is likely to be divided by the end-use market. Key end-use markets for R-PO include automotive, construction, bin bags, outdoor furniture and packaging. Automotive demand has already fallen sharply because of the outbreak, and it is likely to decline further after temporary closures at automotive manufacturers across Europe.

Packaging demand is expected to soar. Buyers are expected to favour plastic-wrapped food driven by hygiene concerns, and because of the widespread use of polyolefins in packaging cleaning and hygiene products.

Nevertheless, the extent to which this will benefit the recycling industry remains unclear. Several sources suggest that the pandemic will take the focus off sustainability targets in the short term. They also expect brand owners to switch back to virgin, which may be more readily available.

“In the current situation, if they can't find recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) they'll use LDPE simply to [be able to] supply [their goods],” a major packaging manufacturer said.

Coupled with this, there are concerns about staff shortages as the pandemic gathers pace, and the ability of smaller recyclers to manage cash flow if they are unable to operate for a sustained period of time. Cash reserves at recyclers are typically kept low compared with the petrochemicals industry.

Of wider concern is the impact on logistics. Now that several countries across Europe have closed their borders (see interactive map below) and restricted the movement of goods and people, getting material to and from recycling units is already proving a challenge for some.

“We see [problems] on the logistics side, so getting bottles delivered, and also delivery of our finished goods. There are some borders closed but it's mainly focused on people trends, not transport of goods... Checks on temperatures [of drivers] at boarders… delay transport activities,” an R-PET producer said.

Across the recycling industry, pan-European trade flows are common with both post-consumer and post-industrial waste commonly sourced from overseas – depending on availability and quality – and finished recycled flakes and pellets also commonly exported cross-border.

“Logistics is very painful at the moment in Europe, for all products and all materials, don't know what it'll mean in the end as it'll impact the usage of the products,” a flake producer in central Europe said.

“We buy big quantities from France, Netherlands and Italy and when the borders close completely there's a big problem as where do we get our material? Also 50% [of our end product] goes outside of Germany to Europe and our customers ask us if we're able to deliver the material they need, if we have to reduce production.

“When we ask our plants for transport, they say no problem. At the moment it seems to be… stable, but the question is what will happen tomorrow when the government makes the decision to close the border,” a major European recycler said.

Ongoing uncertainty over the wide array of responses by European governments to the coronavirus has further obscured the demand picture – while some are stockpiling, others are taking the opposite approach and avoiding new orders.

“We have orders, but not new orders for the next few weeks. There's a big confusion over the next few weeks,” the major French waste collector and reprocessor said.

The longer term impact on investment decisions also remains uncertain. Investment across both mechanical and chemical recycling is vital if the industry is to meet ambitious legislative and brand targets for packaging recycling.

There is a current severe shortage of food-grade material across all recycled polymers, both on the collection and reprocessing side. For the time being, the majority of the European recycling industry continues to operate on a business as usual basis, but the consequences may be felt for many years to come.